Australia Packaging: FY26 Preview: AMC preferred as recovery debate moves from if to when

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Packaging: FY26 Preview: AMC preferred as recovery debate moves from if to when

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 July 2026

Australia Packaging

FY26 Preview: AMC preferred as recovery debate

moves from if to when

We maintain our preference for AMC (Overweight) over ORA (Neutral) Australia

entering earnings season. While recent channel checks and industry data suggest

Australia Industrials

volumes across the Consumer Packaged Goods and Beverage end-markets remain

anaemic, we see slowing declines (and in some cases positive volume trends) as Lee Power AC

more favourable for Amcor’s end markets. This underpins our positive AMC view (61-2) 9003-8725

lee.power@jpmorgan.com

into results and is consistent with the broader demand trends flagged by large

Dylan Adrian

publicly-listed peers through the current reporting cycle. While these trends are (61-2) 9003-7397

unlikely to materially surprise in the current quarter, we believe consensus dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com

expectations already embed a sufficiently conservative volume outlook for both Nick Torelli

names, limiting the scope for material negative surprise on the FY26 print and (61-4) 6817-5219

shifting the debate toward the durability and cadence of any recovery. While nick.torelli@jpmorgan.com

AMC’s leverage likely remains elevated until Iran fully resolves (net $300m J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

impact to FCF), we believe this remains secondary to EPS trends given it is well

flagged and understood. We remain cautious on ORA where we prefer to see

additional evidence that the current headwinds are cyclical rather than structural

before turning more constructive (albeit we close our underweight and return to

Neutral as we believe at current levels ORA should find valuation support).