European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Higher gas prices, lower gas burns

Research evidence excerpt

European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Higher gas prices, lower gas burns

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

21 July 2026

European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker

Higher gas prices, lower gas burns

Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

(44-20) 3493-8246

otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Aradhaya Makkar

Demand largely unchanged as temperatures moderate aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• For the week of July 13-19, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK averaged

296 Mcm/day, 2% lower WoW and when compared to the same period last

year, driven by uniform decline in both residential and non-residential sectors.

• Temperatures moderated across the region last week, with CDDs declining

from 9 to 6 in the wider region and from 8 to 3 in the UK. Overall, July weather

outlook has normalized and sits comfortably above the historical normals,

about 1.6x stdev above 10-year average (compared to almost 3x stdev warmer

outlook last week, Figure 1). August weather outlook has also moderated and

is currently seen at 201 CDDs, broadly in line with 10-year normal of 204

CDDs, however the hot July still implies one of the hottest summers on record,

slightly below the 2022 observation (Figure 2).

• At the country level, demand profile remained broadly comparable to last

week’s levels with no major deviations.

• Month to date in July demand is averaging 294 Mcm/day, 5% lower YoY and

21 Mcm/day lower compared to our forecasts, largely driven by lower gas

burns to date and higher renewable availability, as wind+solar is up 22% YoY.

Figure 1: TTF region June and July CDD evolution Figure 2: Europe July-August CDDs

CDDs Total CDDs for July, August

270 600

Cooler than normal Normal Hotter than normal

210 500 10yr normal