Saudi National Bank 2Q26 First Take: High-quality revenue beat should support the shares

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi National Bank 2Q26 First Take: High-quality revenue beat should support the shares

Mehmet Sevim AC CEEMEA Equity Research

(971) 4428-1784 21 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Saudi National Bank (Overweight; Price Target: SRls46.00)

Investment Thesis

Saudi National Bank is the #1 bank in KSA with an asset market share of c25%. The Saudi

Arabian government, via the PIF, is the largest shareholder with a c37% stake. SNB has a

healthy balance sheet with comfortable capital, liquidity and asset quality underpinned by

a diversified business model. The bank’s recently announced new strategy aims to revitalize

the franchise and put the bank firmly in a growth mode after a few years of more muted

performance in the aftermath of the NCB-Samba merger. We believe that the bank’s delivery

on its ambitious targets, along with improved transparency and communication with the

investor community, could drive EPS upgrades and support the shares. The risk with an

ambitious plan, however, is that management might excessively increase risk appetite or

pursue aggressive market share gains at the expense of profitability if progress does not

align with the plan, whether due to internal or external factors–hence the market will likely

scrutinize delivery over the next few quarters to assess the risk. We rate the stock OW.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 PT of SAR46.0 is based on a Gordon Growth model, incorporating 15.0%

2027E ROTE, a 10.7% cost of equity and a 4% growth rate.

Normalized ROTE 15.0%

Cost of equity 10.7%

Growth rate 4.0%

Fair P/TBV multiple 1.6

TBVPS (Dec-27) 28.2

Fair value per share 46.2

Published fair value per share, Dec-27 46.0

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates

Risks to Rating and Price Target