Alfa Laval: Q2‘26 Results First Take – Broad-based order strength overshadowed by a large margin miss

Research evidence excerpt

Alfa Laval: Q2‘26 Results First Take – Broad-based order strength overshadowed by a large margin miss

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

21 July 2026

Alfa Laval Neutral

ALFA.ST, ALFA SS

Q2'26 Results First Take – Broad-based order strength Price (20 Jul 26):Skr556.80

overshadowed by a large margin miss Price Target (Dec-27):Skr565.00

Our Take: The key highlight today is the 29% y/y organic order growth which led European Capital Goods

ACto a 15%/20% beat to JPMe/consensus on orders, with DD% beats to consensus Akash Gupta

across the 3 divisions. The 26% sequential order growth is evidently better than the (44-20) 7742-7978

guidance of 'somewhat higher’ demand sequentially and resulted in a solid BTB, akash.z.gupta@jpmorgan.com

at 1.23x. The beat on orders was somewhat overshadowed by a large margin miss J.P. Morgan Securities plc

where Adj EBITA margin of 17.0% missed JPMe/consensus by 130/120bps, Phil Buller

reflecting the cumulated effects of cost inflation, uneven loads in some (44-20) 3493-9403

phil.buller@jpmorgan.com

manufacturing units, and slower invoicing and some investments for long-term J.P. Morgan Securities plc

growth, respectively. The company is guiding Q3 demand to be “somewhat lower

Chitrita C Sinha

compared to the second quarter”, although market conditions are expected to (44-20) 7742-7176

remain favorable. Given the much stronger than expected Q2 orders, the standing chitrita.sinha@jpmorgan.com

Q3 BBG consensus at Skr18.4bn implies a 17% q/q decline on the Skr22.2bn base J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and, hence, would need to move higher, in our view. We expect largely unchanged Jeremy Caspar

consensus estimates as upside from higher revenues will likely be offset by lower (44-20) 3493-5188

margins.