INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 21, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Growing signs of Tech recovery - faded in US session yesterday (NDX & SOX still outperformed

SPX) but key theme in APAC markets this morn. Futures pointing to NDX lead today (vs EU lagging)

• Reports that Kimi K3 ‘suspended new subscriptions after overwhelming demand pushed

capacity close to limits’ boosted AI infra trade (Neocloud, Memory & AI Bottleneck top baskets)

• China AI remains in focus: White House considering options to block or restrict the use of open-

source Chinese models by US companies (weekly token share of Chinese models used by US

firms rising towards 60%, chart below). Our ETF desk sees clients favoring China over broader EM,

with supply arising from EM-Asia AI picks and shovels (full blast below).

• Ahead of GOOG earnings this week, news of a more efficient ‘Frozen v2 chip’ in focus: chip will

"address a major shortage in AI computing capacity"

• On earnings, Mislav notes EA EPS revisions have been accelerating for 15 weeks , and have fully

closed the gap with the US for the first time since Jan ’25. LSEG forecasts SXXP Q2 earnings

growth of 16.7% YoY (6.4% excl. Energy).

• Oil rangebound amidst mixed geopol noise – mediators proposed 10 day ceasefire to revive US/Iran

deal while Houthis imposed maritime block on Saudi Arabia.

• UK politics deep dive below. Gilts didn’t like Burnham’s comments on seeking “any flexibility” in

fiscal rules (workaround proposed by Resolution Foundation getting attention). Watch today’s

announcement on cost of living support.

• JPM Research: Korea Equity Strategy note out. Team estimates leveraged ETF unwind to be

75% through and equity H/F de-leveraging >50%, and remain OW Korea with 12m-out base case

KOSPI target unchanged at 12,500.