EM FX Daily Report - 21st July 2026. Tue Jul 21 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 21st July 2026. Tue Jul 21 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 21 July 2026

EM FX

RUB The gentle drift higher in usd/rub continued yesterday as spot moved up from 78.30 to 78.60.

Not much in the way of flows here or elsewhere amongst international banks, according to SDR

data anyway. Onshore still driving price action and right now the buying is outweighing supply.

Might see some month end tax related selling but doesn't feel like it will be significant.

ZAR The market remains stuck between a positive cyclical backdrop (our economists yesterday are

looking at raising 2H26 global growth forecasts), versus escalating tensions in the Middle East,

making it difficult to have too much risk on. We still like playing USDZAR from the short side,

and have sold the rally up towards 16.60, although do remain pro-active around our cash

position. Oil lower this morning and USDZAR has moved back towards 16.40, so have taken a

little back. CPI and SARB the main focus of the week, along with any escalations in the Red

Sea.

TRY USDTRY remains well contained around state-bank offers currently at 47.2000 with the usual

175 pips adjustment. We remain long TRY carry, with conviction reinforced by the takeaways

from the Istanbul forum two weeks ago. Offshore inflows early last week also supported the

view despite a softer broader risk backdrop. We continue to see little prospect of a near-term

change in the FX framework, as real TRY appreciation remains a key anchor

in maintaining financial stability. Political pressure remains limited for now, and an early

election before late 2027 still looks highly unlikely. While the disinflation process has clearly