2Q26 Canadian Communications Preview: Mobile Growth Decelerates Further on Population Headwinds; Broadband Growth Remains Muted

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Canadian Communications Preview: Mobile Growth Decelerates Further on Population Headwinds; Broadband Growth Remains Muted

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

21 July 2026

2Q26 Canadian Communications

Preview

Mobile Growth Decelerates Further on Population

Headwinds; Broadband Growth Remains Muted

Ahead of 2Q26 earnings, we preview our expectations for Canadian mobile phone Telecom Services, Cable & Satellite

ACand Internet results. We forecast total ecosystem mobile phone net adds of 199k in Sebastiano C Petti

2Q26, down 30% y/y from 285k on reduced immigration. We model muted 2Q (1-212) 622-8529

wireless service revenue growth of 0.3% y/y, to $5.96b, driven by a 1.6% decline sebastiano.c.petti@jpmorgan.com

in mobile phone ARPU, with ecosystem subscribers up 1.7% y/y. In broadband, we Shayna Nguyen

estimate industry net adds of 61k in 2Q26 (down from 71k in 2Q25) on slower (1-212) 622-0038

market growth amid ecosystem maturation. Please contact us for an updated copy shayna.nguyen@jpmchase.com

of our comprehensive metrics sheets, which offer historical, carrier-by-carrier John Stid

analysis of the wireless, broadband, and video ecosystems. (1-212) 272-0992

john.stid@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Wireless

• Forecasting a 30% y/y slowdown in 2Q mobile phone net adds, to

199k. Across the industry, we estimate total mobile phone net adds of 199k in

2Q26 (-30% vs. 285k in 2Q25). We expect Quebecor to lead the industry with

net adds of 55k, driven by footprint expansion, share gains in new cohorts, and

the company's multi-brand segmentation strategy. We attribute the y/y

slowdown in industry growth to ongoing population pressures.

• Estimating an 8% y/y decline in gross adds, to 1.58m, with mobile phone

churn of 1.25% (flat y/y).