North America Gold: 2Q Preview: Recent Underperformance Offers Compelling Entry Point for Longer-Dated Investors; Reit. OW-B Top Pick

Research evidence excerpt

North America Gold: 2Q Preview: Recent Underperformance Offers Compelling Entry Point for Longer-Dated Investors; Reit. OW-B Top Pick

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

21 July 2026

North America Gold

2Q Preview: Recent Underperformance Offers

Compelling Entry Point for Longer-Dated Investors;

Reit. OW-B Top Pick

Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, our NA gold coverage is -39%, in-line Metals & Mining

ACwith the GDX (-39%) but underperforming gold (-24%) amid hawkish Fed Bennett Moore

expectations and risk of lagged cost pressures. JPM’s Commodities Research team (1-212) 622-0188

(Greg Shearer – Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy) recently cut YE26 bennett.moore@jpmchase.com

forecasts 25% to ~$4,500/oz (+12% vs. spot) on gold’s re-correlation with US real Bill Peterson

yields. Dormancy among key demand sectors has resulted in rate-sensitive ETF (1-415) 315-6766

outflows emerging as the marginal seller, likely capping upside until a material dovish bill.peterson@jpmchase.com

pivot occurs (link). Longer-term, we maintain our constructive outlook, with the team Rock Hoffman

anticipating structural buying re-emerges in 2027 (link) as targeting gold as a share of (1-212) 259-5055

rock.hoffman@jpmchase.com

total central bank reserves embeds a formulaic, self-correcting elasticity—lower gold J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

prices erode existing gold share and require more tonnes to reach the target. While cost

inflation is likely to persist amid re-escalation in the Middle East, we feel this is largely

reflected in multiples, offering a compelling entry point for longer-dated investors,

with our coverage pricing in implied long-term gold of $3,300-3,800/oz, well below

~$4,000/oz spot. Within our coverage, we reiterate OW-rated B as our top pick on