Harum Energy (HRUM.JK): Estimates Refresh with Lower Coal Volume amid Improving Nickel Backdrop; Maintain Buy (H)

Research evidence excerpt

Harum Energy (HRUM.JK): Estimates Refresh with Lower Coal Volume amid Improving Nickel Backdrop; Maintain Buy (H)

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21 Jul 2026 00:44:18 ET │ 15 pages

Harum Energy (HRUM.JK)

Estimates Refresh with Lower Coal Volume amid Improving Nickel

Backdrop; Maintain Buy (H)

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (20 Jul 26 16:00) Rp845 We update our HRUM forecasts to reflect Citi's latest global commodities

Target price Rp1,300 forecast while incorporating weaker thermal coal earnings assumptions

albeit nickel profitability seems solid. While we trim HRUM's 2026E coal Expected share price 53.8%

sales volumes to c.3.0mt (vs 5.1mt in 2025) following Indonesia’s tighter return

RKAB allocation, we expect this to be more than offset over medium-term Expected dividend yield 2.3%

by accelerating earnings from the nickel portfolio. We incorporate stronger Expected total return 56.2%

contribution from Blue Sparking Energy (BSE) as commercial HPAL Market Cap Rp11,422,795M

production ramps following first sales in March-2026, together with US$642M

improving profitability across both matte and RKEF operations as

downstream nickel margins continue to recover. Meanwhile, we believe

deeper vertical integration of PT Position (POS) towards HRUM's overall

ecosystem in 2026E could drive both upstream and downstream Ryan DavisAC

profitability via higher volumes and lower consumable ore premium +62-21-2924-9218

transmission. HRUM is trading at 3.7x 1-year forward consensus PER, - ryan1.davis@citi.com

1.5SD below its 4-year mean. Our TP is unchanged at Rp1,300/sh.

Maintain Buy/HR.

Coal: Lower Volumes Outweigh Higher ASP Backdrop — We expect coal earnings

to soften in 2026 despite relatively resilient pricing. Our forecasts assume coal sales