Today‘s Morning Meeting

Research evidence excerpt

Today‘s Morning Meeting

Europe Equity Research

Europe First to Market 21 July 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting

European Utilities (Javier Garrido)

Low European gas storage underpins positive earnings momentum for generators and integrated

utilities

Our analysis indicates that elevated H2 power and gas price assumptions will be supported by: 1) record low gas storage

levels, 2) an unwillingness to compete with Asia to import gas now at a higher price, 3) incremental supply issues

(both in the Middle East and elsewhere), and, 4) a “Super” El Niño pushing up global energy demand for cooling. Our

conversations with investors suggest that the market is still uncertain with regards to the pricing in of higher commodity prices

pending a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Our analysis aligns with the J.P. Morgan Commodities Research team, who

say that we should see higher European gas prices in Q3 or Q4, with upside risk on any newsflow of further conflict. This

leaves upside risk to higher and more volatile power prices in Q4/Q1 in a period of seasonally higher demand, providing an

earnings uplift to generators and integrated names. We view RWE (OW, AFL), Engie (OW), Naturgy (OW) and Centrica

(OW) as best placed to capitalise on this into H2 through both their diversified generation and trading segments.

AFL | RELX PLC (Daniel Kerven) (REL LN, OW)

Strategic developments - we are increasingly confident STM will make the LEAP to 8% growth; H1

preview

RELX will report H1 results on Thursday. We forecast 7% organic growth and 30bp of margin improvement and expect RELX to

re-iterate its FY and mid-term guidance for improving growth.