The Point for CEEMEA

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for CEEMEA

Point |

Tuesday, 21 July 2026

Top Call | MENA | South Africa | Emerging Europe | Sector | Strategy & Economics | Commodities | Fixed

Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read

GPW (GPW.WA) - We see limited earnings growth and little scope for re-rating; Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Downgrade to Sell/High Risk & Strategy - One Shock to the Next –

GPW’s share price is up +63% YTD, outperforming WIG index by +34%. We are Macro Impact of El Niño on EM

struggling to see the drivers for such a strong share price performance. We see

limited earnings growth potential from the upcoming launch of the new trading

system WATS and the introduction of new tax incentives for individual

investments (OKI accounts). We also see little scope for any re-rating from current

levels given GPW’s still low share of market independent revenues and no plans to

distribute excess cash to shareholders. Reflecting slightly higher earnings

estimates (for details see Fig 47), we raise our TP to Zl 86.80 from Zl 75.60

previously but following the recent share price run-up we downgrade the stock to

Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk.

Andrzej Powierza

MENA

National Bank of Kuwait (NBKK.KW) - 2Q26 Results First Take – Beat Largely

Driven by Provision Reversals, Decent Loan Momentum

National Bank of Kuwait has reported 2Q26 results today. Overall, net profit of

KWD 189m (post AT1 coupon payments) was +62% vs. our estimates (+51% vs

Consensus, +8% yoy, +55% qoq). The headline 2Q26 results appear to be driven

mainly by lower credit costs (provision reversals) along with slightly higher

revenues (mainly Non-II) vs. Cons. Est. 2Q pre-provision profits were +2% vs Cons.

est. Refer to Figure 1 below for our results summary analysis for NBK.

Rahul Bajaj, CFA