Solid 1H26 results; raise TP to IDR1,525: We adjust FY26-28F earnings by ~19-21%; upgrade to Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Solid 1H26 results; raise TP to IDR1,525: We adjust FY26-28F earnings by ~19-21%; upgrade to Buy

Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN.JK BBTN IJ 20 July 2026

EQUITY: BANKS

RatingSolid 1H26 results; raise TP to IDR1,525 Up from Neutral Buy

Target priceWe adjust FY26-28F earnings by ~19-21%; upgrade to Increased from IDR 1,525Buy IDR 1,245

BBTN reported 1H26 net profit of IDR2.4tn (+41% y-y), slightly ahead of our expectations Closing price IDR 1,260 17 July 2026and representing 51% of our FY26F forecast. The key earnings driver remains the

SMBC Indonesia (BTPN IJ, Neutral) pension /pre-pension loan portfolio acquisition

Implied upside(~IDR19.9tn), with the first tranche (IDR12.6tn) completed at end-June and the second +21.0%

tranche (IDR7.3tn) targeted for 3Q26. The acquisition adds ~345k accounts at a 13– Market Cap (USD mn) 978.8

14% yield, well above BBTN's ~7.3% blended loan yield, supporting NIM expansion ADT (USD mn) 1.9

alongside continued provisioning normalization from the Loan Factory initiative and Balé

/ecosystem-led CASA growth. Relative performance chart

Please refer to page 3 for more details on 1H26 results summary.

Earnings forecast revisions

Post results, we raise our FY26F/27F/28F net profit forecasts by 18.8%/19.8%/20.7% to

IDR4.69tn/5.06tn/5.38tn, primarily reflecting the BTPN pension-loan acquisition. The

acquired portfolio's 13–14% yield and near-zero NPL at acquisition are expected to be

accretive to both margins and asset quality, leading us to lower our FY26–28F NPL and

cost-of-credit assumptions following full consolidation. Subsequently, we upgrade our

rating from Neutral to Buy with increased TP of IDR1,525.

Valuation and risks

Our new TP of IDR1,525 (up from IDR1,245) continues to be based on DuPont analysis