Telecom, Cable & Satellite: Addressing Key Questions and Debates Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Telecom, Cable & Satellite: Addressing Key Questions and Debates Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

the majority of Starlink’s net adds and

fixed wireless access (FWA) also losing some share. We expect cable’s share to fall to 44%

from 57% over the same period. To reflect this anticipated capacity ramp and competitive

pressure, we recently raised our total cable residential broadband net loss estimate to 2.06m

for 2027, including declines of 550k for both Comcast and Charter, with net losses worsening

over the forecast period.

Question #4 – With demand for spectrum assets growing among direct-to-device

players, who are the potential sellers?

We believe MSS spectrum demand will remain robust as direct-to-device (D2D) operators

including SpaceX/Starlink, Amazon LEO, and AST SpaceMobile seek additional capacity

and geographic coverage. Recent transactions support this view, including Amazon’s

acquisition of Globalstar, SpaceX’s purchase of 65 MHz from EchoStar, and AST

SpaceMobile’s licensing of spectrum from Ligado, while Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium

broadens the buyer universe beyond pure-play D2D and points to a longer-term market of

vertically integrated launch-and-connectivity players. Against this backdrop, we see Viasat,

Anterix, and SiriusXM as the key spectrum monetization beneficiaries. We are most

constructive on Viasat, whose global L-Band and S-Band spectrum portfolio we value at

$16.1b ($0.28/MHz-pop). Following the European Commission’s decision to reshape how

2 GHz satellite spectrum is allocated across the EU, Viasat is well positioned to monetize a

portion of its European holdings to SpaceX and/or AST SpaceMobile, particularly as SpaceX

looks to bring more D2D traffic on-net in geographies such as Europe and Australia. We are