Record 1Q as O2C rides the crack surge: Energy tailwinds drive the beat; retail margin recovery the key monitorable

Research evidence excerpt

Record 1Q as O2C rides the crack surge: Energy tailwinds drive the beat; retail margin recovery the key monitorable

Global Markets Research

Reliance Industries RELI.NS RELIANCE IN 18 July 2026

EQUITY: INDIA ENERGY

Rating Remains BuyRecord 1Q as O2C rides the crack surge

Target priceEnergy tailwinds drive the beat; retail margin recovery the Increased from INR 1,690key monitorable INR 1,640

RIL: Consolidated EBITDA beats our estimates, led by O2C and Upstream Closing17 July 2026price INR 1,327

RIL's consolidated EBITDA at INR475bn rose 11% y-y/ 8% q-q, coming in 6% above our estimate,

mainly due to stronger than anticipated results in O2C (+13% vs our estimate) and Upstream Implied upside +27.4%

(+27%), while Jio's performance was in line and Retail EBITDA missed our estimate by 4%. Key

segment-wise summary: Market Cap (USD mn) 186,553.0

ADT (USD mn) 257.5

O2C (Oil to Chemicals): Consolidated O2C segment EBITDA at INR170bn (vs our INR150bn)

was up 17% q-q, at a 4-year-high, mainly due to all-time high middle distillate cracks (gasoline/ Relative performance chart

gasoil cracks up 4.6x/1.8x q-q), downstream chemical deltas at a 3-4 year high, and sustained

ethane cracking advantage. EBITDA margin improved 60bp q-q to 8.4%. Earnings were partly

weighed down by SAED-related costs, under-recovery in domestic fuel retail, and lower volumes on

planned turnaround and LPG diversion (throughput at 18.1MMT vs 19.5MMT in 4QFY26).

E&P (Exploration & Production): 1QFY27 EBITDA at INR50bn (vs our INR39bn) rebounded

19% q-q with completion of maintenance activity in 4Q, as strong liquids contribution (oil/condensate

realization +31% q-q at USD107.4/bbl) and higher CBM realization (+33% q-q at USD12.0/mmbtu)

offset lower KG-D6 gas realization (-7.7% q-q at USD8.89/mmbtu).