Australia and New Zealand: Weekly Prospects

Research evidence excerpt

Australia and New Zealand: Weekly Prospects

acking around +0.3%%q/q, compared to the

RBNZ’s flat forecast. On inflation, the QSBO flagged rising

Figure 1: Australian business and consumer confidence pressures. The proportion of firms reporting higher costs rose

Index, sa Index (+100=optimistic), sa from a net 37% to 54% in 2Q, which has historically provided

30 Westpac consumer 130 a rough leading indicator for inflation pressures (Figure 3).

20 120 These dynamics, combined with the fuel price shock feeding

10 110 through supply chains, suggest inflation risks remain skewed

0 100 to the upside.

-10 90

NAB business

-20 80 Figure 3: NZ Inflation and QSBO cost expectations

-30 70 %oya Net % bal

-40 60

8 Headline inflation 80 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: NAB, Westpac, J.P. Morgan 7 QSBO costs 70

6 (1qtr lagged) 60

In contrast to the business survey, consumer confidence has 50 4

made little progress toward normalization. Westpac’s con- 3 40

sumer confidence improved modestly to 83.9 in July but 2 30

remains well below the pre-conflict average. Higher interest 1 20

rates and a materially softer house price outlook are likely 0 10

00 05 10 15 20 25

disproportionately weighing on households, with the latter Source: Stats NZ, NZIER, J.P. Morgan

reflected in the survey’s index of house price expectations

falling to a three-year low. NZ CPI expected to be strong

2Q CPI is tracking 1.3%q/q, a strong result, and in line with

NZ surveys suggest mixed outlook the RBNZ staff’s downwardly revised forecast. The revision

Business surveys were also in focus for New Zealand last largely reflected lower prices for fuel-related items thanks to

week. The June quarter NZIER QSBO showed a decent faster normalization in oil. Petrol is still up sharply on the