Canada: June CPI Review

Research evidence excerpt

Canada: June CPI Review

Global Markets Research

20 July 2026First Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Canada: June CPI Review North America Economics

Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y-o-y (Consensus: 2.9%) in June from 3.2% in May, as ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

energy-related price pressures abated in the month. +1 212 667 9186

• Measures of core inflation continued to cool in June. The average of the BoC’s

preferred core inflation measures eased to 1.9% y-o-y from 2.0%, the lowest since

December 2020, while alternative core measures remained comfortably within the

BoC’s 1–3% target range.

• Shelter inflation moderated as declines in mortgage interest costs, utilities, and

homeowners’ replacement costs more than offset a modest pickup in rent inflation.

• Overall, the data suggest underlying price pressures remain contained, with little

evidence of spillovers from higher energy prices. We continue to expect the BoC to

remainonholdthrough2026.

Headline inflation slows as energy prices decline

Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.8% y-o-y (Consensus: 2.9%) in June from 3.2% in May,

as energy prices declined in the month (Fig.1). Gasoline prices fell 10.2% m-o-m on an

NSA basis as an interim ceasefire in the Middle East pushed energy prices lower. Notably,

food inflation also slowed in the month, contributing to deceleration in headline CPI

inflation.

Fig. 1: Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y-o-y in June from 3.2% in Fig. 2: The BoC’s preferred core measures averaged 1.9% y-o-

May, as energy-related price pressures abated in the month y, the lowest since December 2020, while other core metrics

Decomposition of monthly CPI also remained within the BoC's target range of 1-3%

Measures of core inflation