Japan Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

20 July 2026Japan Economic Weekly

Economics - Japan

Research AnalystsWhat has and has not been decided at the

Japan EconomicsNational Council

Kyohei Morita - NSC

We consider BOJ independence in light of the government's Basic Policy kyohei.morita@nomura.com

and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony +81 3 6703 1395

1.Domesticpolicy(government):Whathasandhasnotbeendecidedatthe Masaki Kuwahara - NSC

NationalCouncil(KengoTanahashi) masaki.kuwahara@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3876

• At the National Council on Social Security the ruling and opposition parties have

Kengo Tanahashi - NSC reached broad agreement on the introduction of refundable tax credits. This week we kengo.tanahashi@nomura.com

look at what has and has not been decided with respect to refundable tax credits. +81 3 6703 1295

Exactly what levels of support would be provided and how this would be funded have

Uichiro Nozaki - NSC yet to be considered. uichiro.nozaki@nomura.com

• It is still very uncertain whether an agreement will be reached on consumption tax +81 3 6703 1284

cuts. We think it is important to be aware that, if Prime Minister Takaichi were to push Yuki Ito - NSC

ahead with the ruling coalition's proposal, tensions within the LDP could increase. yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

2.Domesticpolicy(BOJ):BOJindependenceinlightofgovernment'sBasicPolicy

andFedChairWarsh'stestimony(KyoheiMorita,UichiroNozaki) Zhaoqi Liu - NSC

elias.liu@nomura.com

• We take a fresh look at the BOJ's independence in light of the final draft of the +81 3 6703 3844

government's Basic Policy and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony. Yuna Minegishi - NSC

yuna.minegishi@nomura.com • By striking a balance between the BOJ's autonomy and the transparency of its

+81 3 6703 1287