GPW (GPW.WA): We see limited earnings growth and little scope for re-rating; Downgrade to Sell/High Risk

Research evidence excerpt

GPW (GPW.WA): We see limited earnings growth and little scope for re-rating; Downgrade to Sell/High Risk

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20 Jul 2026 23:00:00 ET │ 41 pages

GPW (GPW.WA)

We see limited earnings growth and little scope for re-rating;

Downgrade to Sell/High Risk

CITI'S TAKE

GPW’s share price is up +63% YTD, outperforming WIG index by +34%. We Sell / High Risk ↓ from Neutral / High Risk

are struggling to see the drivers for such a strong share price performance.

We see limited earnings growth potential from the upcoming launch of the Price (20 Jul 26 12:49) Zl105.70

new trading system WATS and the introduction of new tax incentives for Target price Zl86.80↑

individual investments (OKI accounts). We also see little scope for any re-

from Zl75.60rating from current levels given GPW’s still low share of market independent

revenues and no plans to distribute excess cash to shareholders. Reflecting Expected share price return -17.9%

slightly higher earnings estimates (for details see Fig 47), we raise our TP to Expected dividend yield 3.2%

Zl 86.80 from Zl 75.60 previously but following the recent share price run-

Expected total return -14.7%up we downgrade the stock to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk.

Market Cap Zl4,436M

Limited earnings growth — We continue to expect that the upcoming launch of the US$1,195M

new trading system WATS planned for Oct 2026 will positively impact cash equity

trading volumes at GPW. We increase our cash equity turnover and average fee

projections for 2027 due to the introduction of new tax incentives for individual

investments (OKI accounts) scheduled for Jan 2027. However, we think the velocity Price Performance

ratio of GPW will not materially exceed the level of the other leading EU exchanges,