UNH 2Q26: MA recovery on track, Optum Insights and non-MA UHC present upside; Increase PT to $512

Research evidence excerpt

UNH 2Q26: MA recovery on track, Optum Insights and non-MA UHC present upside; Increase PT to $512

nts that expanded access, boosted provider productivity, and raised

patient satisfaction. Sales of underperforming and non-strategic PCP practices is taking longer than expected and is forecast to

be completed in 2H26.

The business is leaning into its integrated VBC model, now reaching nearly 90% of U.S. counties and performing about 2.5M

rural home visits annually. At the same time, the company is rolling out AI-enabled tools such as ambient clinical documentation,

which is available to 70% of employed providers today and is on track to exceed 90% by year-end. They are also collaborating

earlier with payer partners on 2027 benefit planning.

Management expects nearly all Optum Health earnings to be recognized in 1H26, with only modest profit in 3Q and modest

losses in 4Q due to the seasonality of the risk-based business.

UHC Medicaid

UNH's Medicaid business performed in line with expectations in 2Q26, with 1H26 results benefiting from affordability

actions such as network curation, payment integrity work, fraud/waste/abuse efforts, and tighter operating cost disciplines.

Management highlighted that medical cost trend remains elevated versus pre-pandemic levels but broadly stable. The company

continues to see pressure in specialty pharmacy, home and community-based services, behavioral health, and increasingly

in inpatient and SNF costs for complex populations. Additionally, they are working with states on on-cycle and off-cycle rate

actions, and continue to expect annualized 2026 rate impacts of 6-7%. That said, rates still lag the elevated trend and UNH still

expects margins of -1% to -1.7% in 2026.

UHC Commercial & Individual