Brazil Webinar Summary: Macro Scenario Revision, Election Outlook and Market Direction

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Webinar Summary: Macro Scenario Revision, Election Outlook and Market Direction

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

20 July 2026

Brazil Webinar Summary

Macro Scenario Revision, Election Outlook and Market

Direction

Replay Available on J.P. Morgan Markets here. Co-head of Emerging Markets Equity

Strategy and Head of LatAm and

Brazil StrategyOn Friday, we hosted a webinar to frame Brazil’s current macro and market

backdrop: 2026 growth has been revised higher and activity is being supported by Emy Shayo Cherman AC

a sizable fiscal/quasi-fiscal impulse that is increasingly credit-led (see our latest (55-11) 4950-6684

forecast update here, Figure 1). From a markets perspective, we discussed how emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

higher for longer inflation risks, growing fiscal challenges and rising domestic Cassiana Fernandez

political uncertainty ahead of the election can add volatility to Brazilian assets, (55-11) 4950-3369

cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

consistent with the historical pattern of weaker equity performance in the six

Mirella Sampaio

months leading into elections. For a more detailed look at the election framework

(55-11) 4950-3289

and key takeaways, see: Brazil Election Countdown: Don’t Rush Into mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Conclusions. Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

1) Fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy: The estimated fiscal and quasi-fiscal impulse for vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

2026 remains broadly unchanged at R$170–180bn, but its composition has shifted Cinthya M Mizuguchi

toward credit support and debt-renegotiation programs. Measures aimed at (55-11) 4950-6560

households, agribusiness, and selected sectors may provide near-term support to cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com