Asia rice price: Bracing for a "very strong" El Niño

Research evidence excerpt

Asia rice price: Bracing for a "very strong" El Niño

20 July 2026

Asia rice price EconomicsAsia

Bracing for a “very strong” El Niño

◆ Weather model forecasts an 81% chance of a “very strong” Ines Lam

El Niño developing between October–December Economist, Asia The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

ines.y.k.lam@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Major Asian importers are stockpiling rice, lifting spot and +852 22887131

export prices even while near-term supplies remain adequate Frederic Neumann Chief Asia Economist, Co-head Global Research Asia

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Rising rice costs plus renewed fertiliser supply risks trigger a fredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2822 4556

food price shock; Asian central banks should stay alert

Abanti Bhaumik

Associate

Bangalore

Rice prices rise as El Niño risks build

Geopolitical and weather risks are colliding in Asia’s rice market. With El Niño

concerns building and supply chains still vulnerable, several major ASEAN importers

are stockpiling to secure domestic availability, pushing spot and export prices higher

even as near-term physical supply still looks broadly adequate. This precautionary

demand is already visible in export benchmark. Thai 5% broken rice prices are up

more than 20% in the first half of the year, while Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is up

about 11% over the same period, after both were largely flat last year.

At the same time, fertiliser risks are resurfacing. Urea prices had fallen back to

pre-war levels, but shipments into the Persian Gulf, a hub for roughly a third of global

urea exports, have reportedly slowed sharply in recent weeks as the US–Iran

ceasefire frays. If disruptions persist, fertiliser availability could tighten again and urea