ICTSI (ICT PM): Buy: Resilient core, improving outlook

Research evidence excerpt

ICTSI (ICT PM): Buy: Resilient core, improving outlook

8 60.5 56.2 52.3

remains supportive, while Durban and Batam are ramping ahead of expectations.

52-WEEK PRICE (PHP)Management expects Croatia to recover faster than feared after losing less cargo to a

competing terminal. It expects yields to stay around current levels, with a modest 3Q 1300.00

uplift from regulated tariff increases (Indonesia, Manila North Harbour, Mexico landside, 825.00

Rio) and a better mix, partly offset by seasonal softness in storage/reefer revenues.

350.00

Margins remain solid: ICTSI flagged higher fuel costs as an immediate headwind, 08/25 Target price:01/261200.00 07/26

and a return to c66% reported EBITDA margin (from 64% in 2Q26) hinges on a near- High: 1027.00 Low: 453.20 Current: 963.00

term volume recovery in Iraq and continued ramp-up at Durban and Batam. Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Concessions extensions strengthen the long-term story: ICTSI extended both Parash Jain* Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

VICT and MICT, lifting average portfolio concession life to just under 23 years. VICT The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

now runs to 2066 on unchanged terms with no capex obligations. MICT extends to parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6717

May 2063, with an upfront consideration and a fixed-fee step-up only from 2038.

Deepak Maurya*, CFA

We keep 2026 EBITDA estimate largely unchanged but lift 2027-28e by 1-4%: For Analyst, Asia Transport The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

2026e, we assume stronger volumes in the Americas and Durban, hold yields flat, and deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

lift cost assumptions. For 2027-28e, we raise both volume and yields reflecting potential +852 2822 4292