Persimmon H1-2026E Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Persimmon H1-2026E Preview

Zaim Beekawa AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4175 21 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We are OW Persimmon; our top pick in the sector. Persimmon

has continued to deliver robust results this year despite the

challenging backdrop, which we attribute to strong operational

and management performance aided by a favourable

geographical footprint with an ASP that is lower than the new-

build average. Persimmon’s mid-term objectives are to achieve

20% operating margins and ROCE; our scenario analysis

indicates that, should Persimmon achieve these by 2029 (while

continuing to grow the business), we could see earnings upside

YTD 1m 3m 12m of 95%, while a simple correlation overlay of historical ROCE

Abs -23.0% 1.4% -10.2% -11.0% to historical P/TNAV, suggests upside of 45% to current

Rel -28.8% -0.1% -9.7% -26.6%

valuation levels. Elsewhere, we also view its vertical integration

Company Data capabilities as a key differentiator which will help ensure

Shares O/S (mn) 320 security of supply and quality of key materials, while helping

52-week range (p) 1,552-999 keep build costs low; and we see scope for favourable capital

Market cap ($ mn) 4,507.52

Exchange rate 74.34 allocation policies in the near-future as the group completes its

Free float (%) 100.0% fire-safety spending.

3M ADV (mn) 1.62

3M ADV ($ mn) 23.4 Valuation

Volatility (90 Day) 43 Our valuation of Persimmon is based on 1.2x 2027E P/TNAV,

Index FTSE 350

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 14|5|0 which is lower than the stock’s long-term multiple of 1.8x, the

average when the company was generating sector-leading

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

returns with high margins.

£ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E