HSBC & StanChart: Thoughts into 2Q26: Asia momentum and resilient rates to support the earnings outlook

Research evidence excerpt

HSBC & StanChart: Thoughts into 2Q26: Asia momentum and resilient rates to support the earnings outlook

review Lincoln Yu

upon clearer guidance from the banks. Both banks are positively exposed to the (852) 2800 8523

structural growth themes of Asia Wealth and capital markets opening, which offers lincoln.yu@jpmorgan.com

potential upside to EPS across the medium term, with our preference for StanChart J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

(OW) at 10.1x PE, 1.4x PTNAV for a ROTE of 14.9% 27E over HSBC (N) at 10.7x

PE, 1.9x PTNAV for a ROTE of 18.7% 27E. Specialist Sales contact details:

• Increasing NII to reflect resilient rates and continued volume recovery: GigiEuropeanSparlingFinancials- Specialist Sales -

We update our forecasts ahead of 2Q results, reflecting a stronger rates outlook (44-20) 7134-0355

with 1M HIBOR averaging at 257bps in 2Q and ending the quarter at 294bps ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

(vs 223bps 1Q average). For 2Q, we expect HSBC to see Banking NII of

$11.58bn (+3% q/q), while for StanChart we expect NII of $2.8bn (-2% q/q)

- both broadly in line with consensus. We now forecast average US rates of

375bps/375bps/350bps FY26-28E, which is slightly below the forward curve,

alongside 1M HIBOR of 270bps/275bps/275bps. With continued momentum

in volume growth including a gradual recovery in HK lending (+6% y/y in May

‘26 inc. mortgages +3.3%), we increase our HSBC Banking NII forecasts to

$46.7bn 26E (vs consensus $46.4bn) and $49.7bn 28E (vs consensus $49.4bn),

while we see StanChart as more diversified with these trends carrying less

weight, although our FY26E NII forecast of +2% is above guidance and

consensus expectations.

• Read-across from US bank reporting highlighted strength in Asia capital