Daily Economic Briefing: The force is strong with this one

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: The force is strong with this one

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

20 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

The force is strong with this one

Economic and Policy Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• While our forecasts for 2Q26 GDP have slipped recently, we have grown more Maia(1-212)Crook622-8435

constructive on 2H26 global growth. This reflects a perspective on 2Q maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

disappointments; weaker US stockbuilding is anticipated to reverse and JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

China's fiscal support is expected to boost growth. But there is a broader story Alex Gallin

of stronger 2H26 growth, built on consumer resilience, a fading energy shock, (1-212) 270-5492

and supportive financial conditions. alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• High frequency US July readings sent an upbeat message, with constructive Joseph Lupton

readings from regional Fed surveys and jobless claims. Globally, last month’s

(1-212) 834-5735

PMI posted a reading consistent with global GDP expanding at an above-trend joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

2.7%ar, above our 2.3%ar 3Q26 forecast. Overall, we look for a modest firming JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

in the July output PMI (about +0.3pt), led by manufacturing. In the Euro area,

where the PMI’s signal tends to be most reliable, we expect a stable output

reading, which would imply growth running at 0.8%ar — a touch below our 3Q

forecast (1.0%).

• Renewed Middle East conflict has driven energy prices higher in recent days

but is unlikely to alter near-term central bank plans. For the ECB, the latest

energy price volatility is likely to reinforce the June decision to keep

communication neutral and policy data-dependent; we expect rates to remain