US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Philly Fed

Non-Mfg Activity at 8.30am ET.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: COF, DHI, DHR, EFX, ENVX, EQT, GPC, GM, HAL,

HAS, IBKR, KEY, MEDP, MMM, MRSH, MSCI, NOC, SCHW, SF, SYF, VICR

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (UK) Average Weekly Earnings, ILO Unemployment

Rate at 2am ET. (France) Retail Sales ex-Auto at 2:45am ET. (Germany) ZEW Survey

Expectations at 5am ET. (Eurozone) ZEW Survey Expectations at 5am ET. (Japan) Trade

Balance at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY

• US / IRAN – A mix of headlines that directionally pointed toward a re-escalation of the US/Iran

situation: (i) an Iranian source told Reuters that mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of

strikes to find ways to revive the Iran-US interim deal; (ii) Houthis said they would impose a

maritime blockade on Saudi: following the closure of Hormuz, Saudi exported 4.19 mbd from

Yanbu; (iii) Trump said Iran “will pay” for killing US soldiers in a social media post in response to

the Iranian missile attack last week that killed two US servicemembers. Among all headlines, the

maritime blockade on Saudi seems to have the biggest impact on an already fragile global oil

supply, but the oil market’s reaction was relatively muted, with both WTI and Brent up less than

$1 today. Below are some thoughts shared by J.P. Morgan Energy Spec Sales Brendan

Henrici:

o BRENDAN HENRICI ON HOUTHIS MARITIME EMBARGO – Obviously has been a

constant risk lingering in the backdrop. Saudi has been exporting 4.5mmbd through

Yanbu so, at a $4/1mmb sensitivity, this is a risk of $18-20 for prices. Pretty incredible

spot up just 0.5% with this coming on the heels of a cacophony of oil bullish headlines