JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Japan First to Market 21 July 2026

Top Stories

Japan Quant Strategy (Masanari Takada)

CTAs enter stop-loss mode – Is it really just a position adjustment?

With the sell-off in semiconductor stocks showing no signs of abating, today the Nikkei Average dropped below the CTA sell-

trigger level (64,600). Nevertheless, the spillover to credit markets and hedge funds as a whole has been limited. As for now,

this does not appear to be accompanied by a deterioration in fundamentals, so it seems reasonable to view this situation as a

supply-and-demand correction driven primarily by price momentum.

Infcurion (438A) (Koki Sato) (438A JP, OW)

Earnings model update

We update our earnings estimates based on the FY2025 results and FY2026 guidance. We lower our price target through

December 2027 (previously December 2026) from ¥1,800 to ¥1,320 due to a review of our valuation approach, but maintain

our Overweight rating. We think concerns that cost overshoots will continue for the time being weighed on the stock following

the full-year FY2025 guidance revision at the time of the 3Q FY2025 results announcement and the release of FY2026

guidance. The company expects to incur substantial costs in FY2026 to set up a promotion structure for large projects, but it

expects to gradually optimize the cost structure from FY2027. We would like to closely monitor whether initially expected

operating leverage materializes. Meanwhile, we do not believe expectations have faded for top-line growth driven by the

broader use of the company's services in the B2B payment space and the expansion of collaboration with SMBC Group.

Pharmaceutical Sector Weekly (Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.)

July 13-17: Sector rebounds as AI and semiconductor-related stocks correct