High Grade Automotive: 3Q26 Handbook

Research evidence excerpt

High Grade Automotive: 3Q26 Handbook

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

20 July 2026

High Grade Automotive

3Q26 Handbook

North America Corporate Credit -

Autos & Auto Parts and

Manufacturing (IG)

Evan Piascik AC

(1-212) 834-4432

evan.piascik@jpmchase.com

• There is a time for many words, and there is also a time for sleep. We remain Max Berman

cautious on the High Grade Automotive sector at current spread levels. The

(1-212) 834-2380

macroeconomic landscape remains pressured, including elevated input costs, max.berman@jpmorgan.com

supply chain headwinds, and weak consumer sentiment alongside persistent J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

affordability concerns. To this point, we estimate the total value of

commodities in a vehicle is up to ~$3.9k/vehicle, up from ~$3.5k/vehicle in our

2Q26 Handbook, despite the value of aluminum in a vehicle falling to $643/

vehicle compared to $739/vehicle at the time of our 2Q26 Handbook. DRAM

supply constraints persist as a longer-term concern for automotive production

as memory manufacturers prioritize data center-related demand, but recent

agreements from Ford and GM with Micron represent an early step toward

supply security. Tariff costs also remain a persistent headwind for OEMs and

weigh on margin profiles, and the ongoing USMCA negotiations are in-focus

particularly for domestic OEMs/suppliers. Please find our updated thoughts on

APTV, BMW, BWA, CMI, DTRGR, F, GM, HNDA, HOG, LEA, MGCN,

MBGGR, STLA, TOYOTA, and VW within.

• Be strong, saith my heart; I am a soldier; I have seen worse sights than this.

YTD U.S. light vehicle sales (through June) have printed an average SAAR of

~15.8 million units, as a slower start to the year driven by severe weather was