Consumer Discretionary Rebound? Interesting Work From Schlegel: US Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Discretionary Rebound? Interesting Work From Schlegel: US Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbriggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 20 July 2026

Consumer Discretionary Rebound? Interesting Work From Schlegel

Briggs Barton

+1 212 622 2677

briggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

(Spec Sales Views Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Points

• John Schlegel (JPM Positioning Intel) has done some interesting work and notes we could be poised for a rebound in

Consumer Discretionary stocks as we see HF positioning at 12mo lows across many pockets + the latest U-Mich consumer

sentiment reading showed a m/m improvement, a setup that has historically favored Consumer Discretionary

• This comes set against the widest divergence we have ever seen between S&P vs Consumer Sentiment performance

• Consumer Discretionary positioning is lower than we’ve seen in some time amongst both HF and LOs and sentiment leans

more bearish on the setup, but we think the narrative is worse than the reality for now (our Chase spending data continues to

look resilient)

• The sector has been trading heavily and increasingly inverse to Momentum (Staples and Cons Disc trading directionally

opposite Momo >80% of days month) given Consumer has been a source of funds for AI/Semis (an area where positioning is

stretched relative to history)

• Given lobsided market positioning, investors should be cognizant of reversal risks if there are any changes in the currently

very bullish AI narrative

STARTING WITH SCHLEGEL’S WORK...

Source: JPM Positioning Intelligence Weekly Wrap

John Schlegel writes the below: