Nickel Industries: Significant growth outlook undervalued by the market; initiate at Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

Nickel Industries: Significant growth outlook undervalued by the market; initiate at Overweight

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 July 2026

Initiation

Nickel Industries Overweight

NIC.AX, NIC AU

Significant growth outlook undervalued by the market; Price (20 Jul 26):A$0.87

initiate at Overweight Price Target (Jun-27):A$1.45

We initiate coverage of Nickel Industries (NIC AU) with an OW rating and Jun-27 Australia

PT of A$1.45, using an $18k/t LT real Ni price; our PT implies ~70% upside. NIC

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

offers unique nickel pure-play exposure via its mining and downstream nickel

processing operations in Indonesia. We forecast attributable EBITDA to grow Lyndon Fagan AC

from ~$240m in FY25 to $550m in FY27 as the company brings on production (61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

from its second mine, Sampala, and grows nickel output from downstream high J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations. Key takeaways: 1) NIC’s earnings are split Jonathon Sharp

fairly evenly between Mining / Pig Iron (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnaces, RKEF) / (61 2) 9003-8312

HPAL products; 2) despite our relatively flat nickel price outlook, volume growth jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

sees EBITDA grow every year through the next five years, reaching ~$900m J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

(attributable) in FY31E; and 3) the stock looks significantly undervalued trading Branko Skocic

on a P/NPV of 0.6x, with our FY28E EV/EBITDA at 4.3x falling to 2.6x in FY30E. (61-3) 9633-4069

branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

• Integrated Indonesian-based nickel pure-play. Nickel mines include J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Hengjaya (80%) and Sampala (42%). Hengjaya has approved production of Devwrat Vegad