Philippine Equity Strategy: Not all storms sink all ships: Where to find resilience and manage risks

Research evidence excerpt

Philippine Equity Strategy: Not all storms sink all ships: Where to find resilience and manage risks

he latter reflects expectations of an unwinding

of the supply dislocations and prospects of increased output from non-OPEC

producers. JPM's economics team lowered terminal rate estimate from 6.0% to Top Philippine OWs

5.5% after inflation moderated in <7% in May and June as global oil prices Rtg (Php)CMP (Php)PT (US$Mkt capm) PERFY26E(x) DivFY26EYield (%) FY26EROE

corrected. Currency pressures are expected to abate, with JPM 2026/2027 ICT OW 1,027.0 925 33,616 29.8 1.8 47.6

OW 17.0 21 3,929 11.0 2.7 6.7 CAD forecasts trimmed to 4.2%/2.7% of GDP from 4.4%/3.9% of GDP (link), BDOALIAC OW 126.8 160 10,966 7.7 3.5 13.2 OW 493.4 475 4,962 6.1 1.9 9.3

amid the energy price tailwinds, a soft investment climate, and resilient MER OW 588 760 10,743 12.4 5.1 29.3

remittances. Source:Finance J.P.L.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, Bloomberg

• Political noise watch: VP impeachment trial and reform momentum risks.

Ongoing political noise around the impeachment trial of the Vice President

Sara Duterte matters for markets primarily because it could shape the

presidential elections in May 2028. As the current polling front-runner, an

adverse outcome in the trial could affect her eligibility to run, and by extension,

the likely configuration of the next election contest. Beyond the electoral angle,

the political risk premium is elevated due to the heightened uncertainty and

diversion of government attention and bandwidth, potentially increasing

legislative drag and constraining the President’s ability to advance key

economic legislative priorities, i.e. amendments to EPIRA, and the upcoming

2027 national budget – where sustained coalition management and