Global LNG Supply & Shipping Tracker: Qatar’s winter supply clock starts to tick

Research evidence excerpt

Global LNG Supply & Shipping Tracker: Qatar’s winter supply clock starts to tick

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

20 July 2026

Global LNG Supply & Shipping

Tracker

Qatar’s winter supply clock starts to tick

Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

(44-20) 3493-8246

otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Following the recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict, LNG transit Aradhaya Makkar

aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted. Based on Bloomberg ship- J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

tracking data, the last observed transit occurred on 12 July, when a Qatari vessel

exited the Strait (Figure 1LNGveselstraficinStraitofHormuz). Since then, we have noted only one delivery to Kuwait.

Qatar loadings, however, appear to be continuing, albeit at a reduced pace. We

estimate that Qatar loadings are currently averaging around 22% on a 7-day

moving-average basis, compared to 30% earlier in July. However, most of these

loaded cargoes are effectively functioning as floating storage, given that Hormuz

is once again effectively closed and intra-Gulf deliveries remain limited (Figure

2ActualrampupspedofQatarLNGliquefactioncapacity).

The key question now is how quickly the current escalation can be resolved,

and whether Qatar may be forced to shut down production again. There are

many moving parts in these estimates. At the onset of the conflict, we estimated that

Qatar had roughly five days of storage capacity when operating at full liquefaction

capacity. Mathematically, this could extend to 20-25 days if Qatar is running at

about 20% utilization, with floating storage providing an additional cushion. With

no confirmed transits via Hormuz over the past week, we still count 23 LNG vessels