Copper Dashboard: Global inventory eases on China destocking; tariff front running continues as US stocks continue to build; remain constructive on most copper miners

Research evidence excerpt

Copper Dashboard: Global inventory eases on China destocking; tariff front running continues as US stocks continue to build; remain constructive on most copper miners

on Sharp

Catalyst Watch for 2Q production results (23 July) as we see the greatest cost- (61 2) 9003-8312

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

driven risks due to its unique exposure to high Brazil and South Africa iron ore J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

freight rates and weakness in diamonds (link). For both Anglo American and Devwrat Vegad

Glencore (44%/44% owners of Collahuasi), an update on the suspension of (91-22) 6157-3608

Collahuasi's desalination plant carries tail risks, as we believe a prolonged devwrat.vegad@jpmchase.com

suspension could have implications for copper recoveries in H2'26 or 2027. J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited/ J.P.

Morgan India Private Limited

Branko Skocic

J.P. Morgan's Head of Base & Precious Metals Research, Greg Shearer, noted that (61-3) 9633-4069

while tight mine supply and structurally supported demand keep the medium-term branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

backdrop supportive, at ~$13,600/mt, up more than 40% YoY and against a surplus J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

global refined market of over 500 kmt in 2025, it is hard to argue copper prices look Zane Guo

cheap. The key 2H26 catalyst is policy, not balances: the market is effectively in (61-3) 9633-4020

a US-China tug of war, with the US having pulled metal via an attractive COMEX/ zane.guo@jpmorgan.com

LME arb since early 2025, building a ~1.2 mmt stockpile in 18 months - tightening J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

the ex-US market and forcing China's buying floor materially higher toward

$13,500/mt. On tariffs, the team believes the Trump administration will pursue a