Quick Silver: Nokia (OW; TP €18) | Favourable Setup into Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Silver: Nokia (OW; TP €18) | Favourable Setup into Earnings

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nscott.silver@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 20 July 2026

Scott Silver

+44 207 134 0412

scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

The setup for Nokia into numbers looks enticing with messaging from the company looking supportive for a name which

typically has big intraday moves on results and has seen significant degrossing in recent weeks. Nokia shares have pulled

back roughly 40% from their highs, alongside most of optical but the key question for investors is whether anything has

fundamentally changed. In my view, the answer remains no. The recent weakness appears largely tied to a broader cooling-

off across the optical networking complex which had done extremely well into a particularly harsh tape (so profit taking

makes sense). As we head into results on Thursday, Nokia remains one of the names across my EU world that could have the

biggest intraday move on positive results (although I am unconvinced it will hold the moves in this tape). We expect strong

Cloud and AI orders from the company in Q2. Whether the co. will raise guidance for FY26 will depend on supply

availability. We believe that Nokia is in a position to raise IP and Optical revenue growth for the year. Sandeep has written in

previous notes that the co. could raise guidance to as much as 28% (currently guided to grow 19% at the midpoint). We

expect the co. to beat Q2 EBIT slightly (5.7%) though given Nokia’s normal seasonality, 2H is when the co. sees highest

sales so significant sales/EBIT improvement will be seen then. Long-only interest has dropped dramatically in recent weeks,

having driven the most inbound on the desk.