The Point for North America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for North America

Point |

Monday, 20 July 2026

Morning Call Highlights | Company | Industry | Economics & Strategy | Key Rating and Target Price

Changes

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US Equity Strategy - Framing the Growth Narrative North America - Road Ahead 2H26

This note updates and refreshes our work on “clusters” as a better approach to

large-cap positioning than the Mag 7 and other style considerations. The Growth

cluster comprises 55% of S&P 500 capitalization and nearly 48% of earnings. It

will also contain a good representation of stocks most directly influenced by AI

tailwinds (albeit to the positive and negative). There are many implications to the

scale up in the Growth cluster over the past 30 years. Macros matter less, realized

volatility should be persistently higher, and historical index level valuation

comparisons need an asterisk. Interestingly, Growth cluster valuations are lower

vs history than are those for Cyclicals and Defensives.

Scott T Chronert | Patrick Galvin, CFA

Growth Cluster Market Cap Weight Growth Cluster NTM Earnings Weight

60% 60%

S&P 500 Growth IG Cluster Market Cap Weight (Latest = 54.2%)

50% 50% S&P 500 Growth IG Cluster NTM Earnings Weight (Latest = 47.7%)

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%

North America Insurance - Property & Casualty - Buybacks Appear Critical to

Soft-Market Stock Success

Buybacks are an important capital allocation tool that correlates with total returns

when the industry lacks pricing power. Based on our analysis of these periods (see

Figure 1), total returns in the quarter following significant buyback activity (>2.5%

of volume) tend to result in higher total returns than when buybacks are lower

(3.9% vs. 3.1%). Buyback activity tends to increase when growth prospects for the

industry slow.