Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

Research evidence excerpt

Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

China Economics - All Eyes on Incremental Policies Following the 26Q2 GDP

Miss

We trim our full year growth forecast to 4.6%YoY from 4.7%YoY previously

following the miss in 26Q2. The quarterly rate came in at 4.3%YoY, the lowest rate

since 2023. Headline resilience is not assured in the K-shaped economy despite

the solid run in AI-led production and export cycle. We expect incremental policies

to drive a mild rebound ahead, including a potential 10bps rate cut from the PBoC

as soon as this July and an acceleration in fiscal policy deployment. The upcoming

Politburo meeting (held on 30th last year) could provide more policy signals. We are

cautious about the actual pace of rebound, however, as extreme weather events

could cause further supply disruptions over the summer.

Xinyu Ji | Xiangrong Yu

We trim our full year growth forecast to Acceleration in local government bond special

4.6%YoY after the miss in 26Q2 and expect a issuance in June hasn’t translated into

mild rebound ahead investment yet

%YoY China GDP Growth RMB bn Net Financing of New Local Gov Special Bonds

25 5000

10 3000

5 2000

-5

-10 0

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Real GDP Nominal GDP 2026 2025 2024 2023

US Economics - PPI details benign for PCE inflation

Following a large downside surprise to June CPI yesterday, June PPI data was also

softer than expected, with total PPI final demand falling 0.3%. Weakness was due

both to falling energy prices as expected but also benign details of various non-

energy components. Overall, a modest increase in medical services, softer portfolio

management fees, and a modest increase in airfares led us to lower our tracking of

core PCE to 0.18% in June.