Pampa Energia (PAM.N): 2Q26 Preview, initial thoughts on Urea FID: solid case, but adds more complexity

Research evidence excerpt

Pampa Energia (PAM.N): 2Q26 Preview, initial thoughts on Urea FID: solid case, but adds more complexity

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20 Jul 2026 04:25:19 ET │ 17 pages

Pampa Energia (PAM.N)

2Q26 Preview, initial thoughts on Urea FID: solid case, but adds more

complexity

CITI'S TAKE

The decision to enter fertilizers – Urea – business relies on a solid vertical Buy / High Risk

integration logic, and a natural domestic and regional demand. On the one

hand, we see FertilPampa as a comfortably accretive Project that could be Price (17 Jul 26 16:00) US$81.91

worth $11/ADR under quite conservative assumptions. On the other, it adds Target price US$121.00

incremental complexity to an already well-diversified holding. We also Expected share price return 47.7%highlight the market has been reluctant to price-in long-lead projects,

notably so with TGS, thus the re-pricing may happen only slowly. See inside Expected dividend yield 0.0%

for discussion and sensitivities. Expected total return 47.7%

Market Cap US$4,455M

Model Update — We update our model ahead of 2Q26 incorporating fresh macro

and spot prices. We lower our country-risk assumptions to 400bps from 500bps

which is offset by a lower oil price curve, keeping our TP at $121/ADR and reiterating

our Buy/HR rating. FertilPampa could contribute $11/ADR under our assumptions, Price Performancewhich we leave as upside. With fertilizers, Pampa trades at 2030 1.6x EV/EBITDA

and 27% FCFE Yield. We forecast a 2Q26 EBITDA of $414m. (RIC: PAM.N, BB: PAM US)

The largest fertilizer plant in LatAm — PAM announced FID on the FertilPampa

project: a 6k tons/day Urea plant in Bahia Blanca, requiring 3.5Mm3/d of natural

gas. Profertil is discussing an expansion of their 1.4mton/year plant, though FID is