EM FX Daily Report - 20th July 2026. Mon Jul 20 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 20th July 2026. Mon Jul 20 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 20 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Usd/rub is edging slowly higher, closing the week at 78.30/50. There's a chance we might see

better hard currency supply into month end but I'm not sure it will stop the drift higher.

ZAR Further escalations on the weekend with USDZAR up to 16.5825 on the open, just below the

200 day. Not the easiest backdrop right now, on the one hand you have a softer US CPI and

resilient global growth, which for the likes of ZAR should allow it to trade well. On the

flipside US/Iran still feels it could get worse than better, and with higher oil and risk

deteriorating, the rand has struggled. That being said, I remain medium term bullish on ZAR

and these are good levels to add so have started to add in cash. Domestically a busy week, with

CPI Wednesday and the SARB on Thursday.

TRY USDTRY remains well contained around state-bank offers currently at 47.1825. We remain

long TRY carry, with conviction reinforced by the takeaways from the Istanbul forum two

weeks ago. Offshore inflows early last week also supported the view despite a softer broader

risk backdrop. We continue to see little prospect of a near-term change in the FX framework.

Political pressure remains limited for now, and an early election before late 2027 still looks

highly unlikely. While the disinflation process has clearly lost momentum, inflation appears

more likely to stabilise around current levels rather than reaccelerate materially. The threshold

for changing the pace of the fx crawl also remains high. In our view, inflation would need to