JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsUSD/JPY remains elevated in the 162 range

Global FX Strategydespite the downside surprise in US PPI

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Longer-maturity retail JGBs could become a yen-positive flow factor. yujiro.goto@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY remains supported despite weak US inflation data. The pair briefly dipped yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

below 162 after the weaker-than-consensus US June PPI but rebounded as higher oil +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

prices amid Middle East concerns weighed on the yen. It traded in the low-162 range

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC during today’s Asia session. tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• Very near-term GPIF portfolio changes are still institutionally difficult. Finance Minister +81 3 6703 1427

Katayama left some room for future revisions, saying the portfolio is reviewed every Yuki Kodera - NSC

fiscal year and could be changed if necessary. However, she also stressed that the yuki.kodera@nomura.com

government cannot intervene in GPIF’s investment management or force a change in +81 3 6703 1281

its investment policy.

• The introduction of 20y and 30y retail JGBs would be yen-positive to the extent that

higher coupons draw household savings away from overseas investment trusts rather

than bank deposits. A partial diversion of NISA-related overseas investment flows into

domestic bonds could ease yen outflow pressure and improve yen supply-demand

conditions over the medium term.

Fig. 1: Foreign stock investment via investment trusts and new Fig. 2: New issuance amount and spread between 10y JGB

issuance amount of retail JGB yield and deposit rate

Source: Nomura, Macrobond Source: Nomura, Bloomberg, Macrobond, BOJ