Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research Analysts

Road to changes in GPIF investment policy Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Bank stocks benefit from interest in non-AI-related stocks naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-InvestorsexpectingchangestoGPIF'sinvestmentpoliciesoftencitethe2013-2014

precedent.

-Atthattime,thebasicthinkingbehindAbenomicswasconsistentwiththeGPIF'sfocus

onriskassetsandoverseasassets.

-ThecurrentdirectionofSanaenomicsisinconsistentwithaGPIFreturntoJapanese

assets.

-PolicychangesthatwouldjustifyareturntoJapaneseassetsincludeadeclarationby

theTakaichiadministrationthatdeflationhascometoanend,Cabinetappointmentsthat

excludereflationists,andtacitacceptanceofanearlyBOJratehike.

Today's Japanese markets

In Japanese markets on Thursday, this author expects equities to fall back and bonds to

extend gains (in overnight futures trading, bonds were up 22 sen and equities were down

JPY1,260 over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, US rate hike expectations continued

to decline, encouraging risk-on flows. New York Fed President John Williams was

optimistic about inflation, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also said that AI investment would

not necessarily push up inflation. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation remained tense,

pushing crude oil higher again and weighing on risk assets. In the US bond market, rate

hike expectations fell and the short and intermediate zones drove gains. The probability of

a rate hike as priced in by the market has fallen to 10% for July and 55% for September.

In the US stock market, bank stocks drove gains in response to US bank earnings results.

Meanwhile, tech failed to gain traction despite strong earnings results from European

companies.