China: Sectoral breakdown of Q2 GDP

Research evidence excerpt

China: Sectoral breakdown of Q2 GDP

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

China: Sectoral breakdown of Q2 GDP Asia Economics

Jing Wang - NIHKThe sectoral breakdown of GDP reinforces our view of a K-shaped economy, especially in

jing.wang@nomura.comnominal terms. Nominal GDP growth of both manufacturing and financial services sectors

+852 2252 1011

reached nearly 9.0% y-o-y in Q2, while property and construction sectors remained in an

Hannah Liu - NIHKacute contraction. The higher nominal growth rate was entirely driven by price effects,

hannah.liu@nomura.comwhile real GDP growth slowed broadly across sectors, even the manufacturing sector.

+852 2252 1082

Moreover, despite surging stock trading, we are skeptical of the high growth in the

financial services sector, given the significant decline in brokerage commission rates, the Ting Lu - NIHK

ting.lu@nomura.comsharp credit growth slowdown, and worsening bank profit margins. On the demand side,

+852 2252 1306

despite the steep FAI contraction, the growth contribution of capital formation only edged

down to 1.5pp y-o-y in Q2 from 1.9pp in Q1, rekindling concerns over the quality of

investment data quality. The Q2 growth slowdown reinforces our view that both markets

and policymakers in Beijing cannot assume the new AI economy will cure China’s

economic woes. We expect a new round of supportive measures to be announced at the

mid-year Politburo meeting, although at a moderate scale.

A significant divide between nominal and real GDP growth in manufacturing

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector slowed sharply to 4.8% y-o-y in Q2, its lowest

since Q4 2023 and down notably from 6.3% in Q1. In sharp contrast, nominal GDP growth in