Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp: Lifting the revenue guide and capex bar again

Research evidence excerpt

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp: Lifting the revenue guide and capex bar again

Global Markets Research

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp 2330.TW 16 July 2026

2330 TT

EQUITY: FOUNDRY

RatingLifting the revenue guide and capex bar again Remains Buy

Target priceStresses commitment to expand capacity and unveils Remains TWD 3,425.00

further investments in the US; retain Buy

Closing price TWD 2,470.00 16 July 2026Looking to expedite the builds, because of AI; reiterate Buy and TP of TWD3,425

TSMC raised its 2026E revenue growth outlook to slightly above 40% on “extremely Implied upside +38.7%robust” AI demand, and lifted capex guidance to USD60-64bn (vs. our preview of

“unchanged”). Management also dialed up US investment by USD100bn (for potential Market Cap (USD mn) 1,990,025.6

additions of 4-5 factories) without any firm schedule as yet. We think the raise directionally ADT (USD mn) 2,746.0

echoes our observation that surging AI demand may have changed TSMC’s mindset

about expansion, potentially leading to a more aggressive stance on capacity build-up

than before (AnchorReport), and we still note TSMC cannot be the only one “working Relative performance chart

hard” to meet the demand with bottlenecks surfacing elsewhere in the AI supply chain

(uncontrolled by TSMC). We lift 2027F/28F capex to USD80bn/90bn (from

USD75bn/85bn) to factor in the expedition of infrastructure and tool purchases. While

TSMC does not update numerical guides about its 5-year revenue or AI semi growth, it

keeps flagging demand is “stronger than what it said before”, and therefore we think there

might be further capex upside if TSMC fully responds to the demand profile. For 3Q26E,

revenue guidance (+12% q-q at midpoint) is in line with ourpreview, but GM guidance of