US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Retailsales: Retail sales rose 0.2% m-o-m in June (Nomura: 0.3%, Consensus: 0.2%) +1 212 667 9347

from an upwardly revised 1.0% m-o-m in May. Gasoline sales fell sharply. On the other Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

hand, motor vehicles and parts sales grew at the fastest monthly pace since July 2025. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

Based on our estimate of the retail deflator, real retail sales rose 1.3% m-o-m, driving the +1 212 667 9637

3m average to 0.5%, the fastest pace since April 2025 (Fig.1). Ruchir Sharma - NSI

Nominal control retail sales rose 0.5% m-o-m (Nomura: 0.6%, Consensus: 0.5%) from an ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186upwardly revised 0.8% in May. Strength was driven by the nonstore retailer component,

which was likely boosted by Prime Day sales. Overall, data suggest that despite

headwinds from the Iran conflict, consumption remains strong.

We have revised up our Q2 GDP tracking estimate to 2.8% q-o-q ar from 2.5% previously.

Excluding volatile inventory investment, net exports and government spending, our

tracking estimate for real final sales to domestic purchasers, a gauge of domestic final

demand, was also revised up to 3.4% from 3.1% previously.

Joblessclaims: Initial claims fell to 208k for the week ending 11 July from 216k

previously, while continuing claims declined to 1805k for the week ending 4 July from an

upwardly revised 1821k previously. Both initial and continuing claims rose on a NSA basis.

Despite a pickup in layoff announcements, claims have remained subdued, pointing to

resilient labor markets.