P&C Re/Insurers 2Q26 Preview: Challenging to Find Value in Stocks Still Basking in Recent Hard Market

Research evidence excerpt

P&C Re/Insurers 2Q26 Preview: Challenging to Find Value in Stocks Still Basking in Recent Hard Market

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

20 July 2026

P&C Re/Insurers 2Q26 Preview

Challenging to Find Value in Stocks Still Basking in

Recent Hard Market

Valuation multiples reflecting cyclically high returns are making it challenging to Insurance - Life & Nonlife

ACfind value in commercial insurers, while more reasonable value for reinsurers is Pablo S. Singzon

offset by our unfavorable medium-term outlook for pricing/returns. We remain (1-212) 622-2295

Overweight on ASIC and PLMR and Underweight on PLGO. pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

Kevin Wijendra

• Growth has slowed and is likely to remain low. With pricing having (1-212) 622-7054

stabilized or continuing to decelerate, we expect growth in overall US kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

commercial premiums to revert to the low-to-mid single-digit range. The surge J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

in US commercial premiums, from +1% in 2016 to the market peak of +12-14%

in 2022/2023, was driven by the overlapping boom/bust pricing cycles of

various major commercial products (CMP, commercial property, marine, and

casualty). Having said this, at the company level, there has been a difference

in relative growth, with smaller specialty insurers gaining share at the expense

of the larger commercial insurers. In the most recent 9 quarters through 1Q26,

TRV and HIG have outgrown the broader industry, likely tied to the relative

pricing and competitive insulation of their small commercial franchises.

• Competition is increasing, but less acute outside property. Casualty pricing

has been declining less than property due to the challenging loss cost

environment as evidenced by recent industry accident year loss picks

increasing.