ADNOC GAS

Research evidence excerpt

ADNOC GAS

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

19 July 2026

We expect a strong Q2 and see UAE’s OPEC Overweight

withdrawal as a potential catalyst for an update to ADNOCGAS.AD, ADNOCGAS UH

longer-term guidance. Price (17 Jul 26):Dh3.33

Price Target (Dec-27):Dh4.15

ADNOC Gas is due to report Q2 earnings on Monday Aug 10th. AG provided CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

ACguidance for Q2 at the time of its Q1 results suggesting net income would be in the Alex Comer

region of USD 400-600m assuming the SoH opened up towards the end of the (44-20) 7134-5945

quarter. We estimate Q2 net income of USD 656m (see fig 1), above the top of the alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

range, given indications that LPG tanker transit recovered well towards the end of J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the quarter and the impact of strong product pricing (particularly sulphur).

Geopolitics and the situation in the SoH remain volatile, making it difficult to Style Exposure

assess earnings for H2 2026, although we would expect AG to give an update on

timelines for recovery of the Habshan gas plant (60% of total capacity and

damaged by Iranian attacks). However, as discussed (here) with the UAE having

pulled out of OPEC the medium-term outlook in terms of oil/ gas production is

perhaps a little more certain and we would hence not be surprised if we saw AG

update its longer-term guidance given greater certainty over oil/ gas production

and hence project rollout. Current AG guidance is for EBITDA in 2029 to be >40%

above the 2023 level - we would expect the target timeline to be extended to 2030

or perhaps 2032 to include a full contribution from Ruwais LNG, RGD phases II/III

and the Bas Gas cap projects (we expect FID on these projects in H2). Current