Key data on Sumco

Research evidence excerpt

Key data on Sumco

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026Sumco

3436.T 3436 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN CHEMICALS & TEXTILES

RatingGrowing likelihood of higher wafer demand Remains Buy

Target price

Increased from 4,100 JPY 6,200Strong need to secure stable wafer supply over long term

Closing price JPY 5,074We reiterate our Buy rating on growing likelihood of sharp improvement in earnings 15 July 2026

We raise our operating-level forecasts for Sumco for 26/12 onward and reiterate our Buy

Implied upside +22.2%rating. The shift in AI demand from learning to inference and the spread of agentic AI has

made it easier for wafers to also benefit from AI demand. We think medium-term earnings

visibility within the wafer industry has improved too, following the 9 July announcement of

a 10-year long-term contract between GlobalWafers and Micron Technology. We roll

Relative performance chartforward the base year for our target price calculation from FY27 to FY28 to reflect the

increased likelihood of growth in wafer demand in 28/12, and obtain our target price via a

fair-value EV/EBITDA ratio of just over 11x, still representing a 10% premium to the

Russell/Nomura Large Cap Index (ex financials) average EV/EBITDA to reflect

industrywide capacity utilization of over 90% for 300mm wafers and our expectation for

continued growth in EBITDA at Sumco. We think increased prospects for a sharp

improvement in earnings as a result of increased semiconductor production capacity and

progress with long-term wafer contract negotiations could act as a catalyst.

Earnings forecasts: We forecast sharp earnings improvement from 27/12 onward on

increased wafer demand

We forecast operating losses in 26/12 because of higher depreciation costs, but revise our