Kioxia Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Kioxia Holdings

Global Markets Research

16 July 2026Kioxia Holdings

285A.T 285A JP / EQUITY: JAPAN INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS

RatingWe hike our target price to ¥126,000 Remains Buy

Target price

Increased from 115,000 JPY 126,000We reiterate our Buy rating as bit prices continue to rise

Closing price

In light of recent market trends and the securities filings released on 24 June, we raise our 15 July 2026 JPY 73,100

operating profit forecasts for Kioxia Holdings from ¥7.0trn to ¥7.5trn for 27/3 and from

¥9.8trn to ¥10.7trn for 28/3. As before, we calculate our target price by multiplying our 28/3 Implied upside +72.4%

free cash flow (FCF) forecast (¥6.9trn, previously ¥6.3trn) by a fair-value market cap

(MC)/FCF ratio of 10x (equivalent to a P/E of 9.0x our 28/3 EPS forecast).

Bit prices continue to rise on supply shortages

Relative performance chartWe raise our forecasts for the company's bit price growth from +65% q-q to +70% for Apr–

Jun 2026 and from +20% to +25% for Jul–Sep. Research company TrendForce has said it

expects NAND bit prices to be weaker in Apr–Jun than at end-March because of slower

demand for consumer electronics (Figure3), but based on comments by Taiwanese

memory module producers, we think that bit prices have remained on an upward

trajectory. For example, ADATA's SSD-related sales appear to be linked to Kioxia's

earnings (Figure2), and they rose 87% q-q in Apr–Jun, with management saying that it

expects NAND flash contract prices to rise 35–40% q-q in Jul–Sep.

Easing of concerns about US government restrictions on frontier AI models

As we discussed in our 16 June 2026 report Industrialelectronicssector-Suspensionof

accesstoClaudeFable5andClaudeMythos5, we think US government restrictions on