Hospitals: Monthly Check-Up: Surgical Volume Softening; Medicare OPPS Estimates; CA Medicaid SDP Approved

Research evidence excerpt

Hospitals: Monthly Check-Up: Surgical Volume Softening; Medicare OPPS Estimates; CA Medicaid SDP Approved

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

20 July 2026

Hospitals

Monthly Check-Up: Surgical Volume Softening;

Medicare OPPS Estimates; CA Medicaid SDP

Approved

With go-forward hospital utilization in question following previews into 2Q Managed Care and Facilities

ACvolume trends from HCA last Tuesday (and ARDT at the start of June), we assess Benjamin Rossi

full foot traffic data for 2Q and recent earnings commentary from MCOs and (1-212) 622-9603

related downstream MedTech names. Hospital foot traffic trends improved q/q and benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

grew more modestly y/y during 2Q, with growth trends flattening during June. We Lisa C. Gill AC

continue to flag concerns on underlying mix, with HCA previewing favorable (1-212) 622-6466

headline volume growth that was weighed down by higher emergent mix and lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

weaker surgical trends. Group MSPP approvals have continued to outperform John Stansel, CFA AC

expectations in both total approvals and program funding, with the CA SDP (1-212) 622-0083

john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

particularly notable to us given what we considered to be a lower likelihood of

Cole Harrisapproval based on previous mgmt commentary and general scrutiny from CMS

(1-212) 622-9068

into that state’s Medicaid program. While the recent OPPS proposed rule provided cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

some upside scenarios for 2027, including some potential offset to the likely J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

continuation of ACA Exchange HWs, group valuations otherwise remain below

historical averages on more subdued sentiment as we await the final Medicaid SDP

rule. With HCA and THC reporting on Friday and UHS on Monday, we believe