Asia Edge: Groundhog day, take two

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Edge: Groundhog day, take two

the conflict. There were recent warningsRussia’s diesel exports (link) have revived concerns about

regarding the stability of gasoline supply in Pakistan, withanother energy supply crunch. Asia Edge economies are high-

media reports pointing to domestic supplies covering aboutly exposed. We leave our baseline inflation and current

two weeks of consumption only (link).account forecasts unchanged for now (Figure 1), as the rise in

oil prices has brought them closer to our Commodities

Mongolia is confronted with the most acute energy-securityResearch team’s post-cease-fire baseline (see further discus-

risks. It relies on Russia for nearly all of its petroleum-prod-sion here and here). However, recent developments have

uct imports, and diversification options are limited by geogra-materially increased the risks around our baseline

phy. The country is landlocked, and the closest port, Tianjin

in China, is connected to Ulaanbaatar by a nearly 1,600kmFirst, higher oil and refined-product prices could add to infla-

railway (link), raising the costs of imports from other suppli-tion pressures. Retail fuel prices had started to decline in the

ers than Russia. The government has reportedly indicated thatcountries where they had risen the most since the outbreak of

domestic stockpiles should be sufficient for around a monththe Middle East conflict, particularly Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and

(link).Vietnam (Figures 2 and 3). That relief now looks vulnerable,

especially in Pakistan and Vietnam, which saw the largest

Figure 1: J.P. Morgan's 2026 inflation forecasts

post-cease-fire declines. Vietnam raised gasoline and diesel In %

prices this week for the first time since mid-May, by 3.3% year-end average 12

and 14.2%, respectively.