Tele2: Post Q2: Concerns on Swedish competition. Expecting H2 recovery. Remain OW.

Research evidence excerpt

Tele2: Post Q2: Concerns on Swedish competition. Expecting H2 recovery. Remain OW.

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

20 July 2026

Tele2 Overweight

TEL2b.ST, TEL2B SS

Post Q2: Concerns on Swedish competition. Expecting Price (17 Jul 26):Skr161.15

H2 recovery. Remain OW. ▼Price Target (Dec-27):Skr204.00 Prior (Dec-27):Skr210.00

Following Q2 results, management kept 2026 guidance intact yet signaled a

tougher Swedish competitive backdrop. The key debate is whether these European Telecommunication

Servicescompetitive pressures are temporary or will force a reset in ARPU momentum –

H2 reporting will be a key proof point on this. Encouragingly, both Tele2 and Telia Ajay Soni AC

stated they will lean into loyalty and convergence to fight competition as opposed (44-20) 3493-8462

ajay.soni@jpmorgan.com

to price cuts. Q2 mobile ARPU trends were softer across all operators; hence we J.P. Morgan Securities plc

trim Tele2’s 2026e end-user service revenues (EUSR) by 1% mainly driven by

Akhil Dattani

Sweden Consumer. 2026 guidance remains prudent, with management implying (44-20) 7134-4725

they can avoid the low end LSD-MSD EBITDAaL range (JPMe: +6.3%, cons: akhil.dattani@jpmorgan.com

+5.7%). We think H2 Swedish EBITDAaL trends should improve from Q2 J.P. Morgan Securities plc

(following marketing cost headwinds) and Baltics growth will remain strong – this Ankur Baheti, CFA

should allow an upgrade to EBITDAaL guidance at Q3 results. We remain (91-86) 5796-8820

Overweight with a Dec’27 PT of SEK 204 (previously SEK 210). ankur.baheti@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• Swedish competitive environment: Tele2 flagged heightened Q2 Specialist Sales contact details:

competition in Sweden’s no-frills mobile segment, partly linked to Telia’s